Amen of the Week: “Ideas are commodity. Execution of them is not.” - Michael Dell, Dell founder Life is so weird. Consider the absurdities of the just the past couple of weeks ... One of New York’s top restaurateurs eliminates tipping in his restaurants. Wal-Mart looks in the mirror and sees its first wrinkle. A younger, prettier Amazon arrives. Italy sells 2-year bonds at a negative yield. The Financial Times notes that “investors are now paying to lend to a country which has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world and has long been a byword for fiscal profligacy.” No retirees take to the streets in protest. No headlines decry the injustice to savers. These are truly bizarre times. Or are they? The older I’ve gotten, the more I’ve observed striking shifts in popular thinking. I now have a skeptic’s eye toward the “wisdom” of experts and a healthy respect for the preposterous. The once seemingly sensible has often proven absurd, while I’ve seen the seemingly absurd ultimately prove sensible. This is especially true when it comes to investing. That which the smart consensus believes sacrosanct often proves resoundingly wrong. Warren Buffett has not become Warren Buffett by following the crowd. The reason investing works this way is that if everyone agrees with you, the price of what you’re buying will fully reflect that optimism. It’s not enough to find great businesses run by great people. You have to be sure that you pay a price that is fair (or ideally cheap). Take Wal-Mart (WMT) for instance. I recall as a young stockbroker in the early 1990s that all my clients wanted to own WMT. It was hard to talk them out of it. Every paper and magazine was gushing over Sam Walton’s unstoppable domination of American retailing. The stock then went sideways for four years. By 1997 you couldn’t talk anyone into buying this “dog”. My clients wanted to sell it. Then grocery happened. Or rather Wal-Mart happened to grocery. The stock went up five-fold within the next few years. Again, the media was abuzz with WMT’s dominance of US retail. Next it would take over the world. Thoughtful academics and analysts wrote of WMT’s impenetrable competitive barriers. Fast forward 15 years to today, and WMT stock has again basically gone sideways. Now folks fret that it’s the next K-Mart. Maybe so, maybe not. I’ve haven’t researched WMT in many years, so I have no educated view on the company’s future. I only share these comments as a case study in the absurd. Take, for example, the belief that certain businesses are invincible. I have lived long enough to see the invulnerable become vulnerable: AOL, Yahoo, Blockbuster Video, Barnes & Noble, Sony, Fannie Mae and now even Wal-Mart, Coke, McDonalds, and Dell. Vividly I remember once believing that each of these great businesses was invincible. Wal-Mart is also a lesson in over-paying for a company’s shares – even a great company that has growth prospects to the moon. Paying a high price on current earnings may be justified in a company’s earlier years when it is a small, emerging business. However, by the time a company becomes large and widely-owned, a premium price is just a premium price. With interest rates at zero and, heaven forbid, heading lower, it is critical to keep our heads straight. First, be mindful that many of the sacrosanct opinions of today – such as interest rates and inflation will stay low forever – may ultimately prove absurdly wrong. Second, keep your eye on the long-term. Owning shares of great businesses is one of the best ways to accumulate long-term wealth. But price matters. Finding fair prices today is tougher than ever with the Fed’s artificial inflation of asset prices. However, there are pockets of reasonable value out there. I’d be happy to help you find them. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Disclaimer: While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in the document. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any of these securities. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein. This information is intended only for the recipient of this email. Under no circumstances should this report be shared with or forwarded to anyone else without the express permission of Fielder.

Amen of the Week “Stock prices will always be far more volatile than cash-equivalent holdings. Over the long term, however, currency-denominated instruments are riskier investments – far riskier investments – than widely-diversified stock portfolios that are bought over time and that are owned in a manner invoking only token fees and commissions. That lesson has not customarily been taught in business schools, where volatility is almost universally used as a proxy for risk. Though this pedagogic assumption makes for easy teaching, it is dead wrong: Volatility is far from synonymous with risk. Popular formulas that equate the two terms lead students, investors and CEOs astray... For the great majority of investors ... who can – and should – invest with a multi-decade horizon, quotational declines are unimportant. Their focus should remain fixed on attaining significant gains in purchasing power over their investing lifetime. For them, a diversified equity portfolio, bought over time, will prove far less risky than dollar-based securities.” - Warren Buffett, Investor Berkshire Hathaway 2014 Annual Report Welcome to another bear market. Stocks go up and down. That near-term uncertainty is the price that we pay for the potential to earn higher returns over the long-term. When we suffer through these inevitable declines in our portfolio values, it’s important that we understand what we own and why we own it. Otherwise, we become vulnerable to losing confidence and selling at the wrong time. Now might be a good time to watch the replay of our webinar, conducted earlier this week, in which we discuss “The Biggest Myth”. There is a widespread belief that the stock market goes up 10% per year over the long term (from any price level). We discuss why this is a naive assumption. We also share our conclusions on what types of stocks should be avoided as markets reach expensive levels. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Disclaimer: While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in the document. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any of these securities. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein. This information is intended only for the recipient of this email. Under no circumstances should this report be shared with or forwarded to anyone else without the express permission of Fielder.

If someone tells you with great conviction that Bitcoin is a bubble, stop listening. They’ve lost credibility. If someone tells you with great conviction that Bitcoin is the currency of the future, stop listening. The truth is no one knows. Bitcoin today is a speculation. Some speculations, however, can be attractive wagers. For example, playing Blackjack with perfect card counting is a succession of speculations where the odds are stacked (slightly) in your favor. How then should we think about the Bitcoin bet? What Is Bitcoin Worth? Here is a simple framework for estimating the odds of Bitcoin’s success. Optimists see Bitcoin as a future currency (or store of value) that one day supplants the government’s monopoly of the money supply. Yet, for that happen three things must go right for Bitcoin: (Please note: Just to give Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt, we will err on the side of being generously optimistic. We believe the real odds of the following are a good bit lower.) 1. Cryptocurrencies must become widely adopted. By widely adopted, we mean that your uncle who still uses an AOL email address uses cryptocurrency to buy shaving cream at Walgreens. From what we’ve read and observed, the odds appear high that future transactions will be consummated using some form of blockchain technology. There is, however, risk that some “new & improved” version of blockchain tech ultimately renders today’s architecture obsolete. Let’s be optimistic and assume a 50% probability that cryptos (in Bitcoin’s present form) could be successfully mass adopted. 2. Governments must tolerate independent cryptocurrencies. Governments like having their own currencies because they can print them and pay for things they owe. Governments don’t like currencies they cannot control because they reduce the value of the ones they do control. When people start preferring an alternative currency, it creates a problem for the government. This is what happened to gold. In 1933, during the depths of the great depression, people began to prefer gold over U.S. dollars. The U.S. government responded by making it illegal to own gold and required citizens to surrender their gold. A country with a mountain of debt cannot afford to give up its monopoly on inflation. When there is another crisis (let’s face it, there always is), the U.S. government is liable to lose patience with cryptocurrencies. Chances are it would follow its old 1933 playbook with gold and outlaw these modern rogue currencies as well. Odds are very low that Washington will tolerate an end to the monopoly status of the US Dollar. My hunch is that the odds are close to 0%, but let’s be generous and give it a 10% probability. 3. Bitcoin must maintain leading share. There are over 1,327 different cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has over 50% market share, but up and comers like Ethereum and Litecoin are eating away some of its lead. What are the odds that Bitcoin maintains its dominant share? For arguments’ sake, let’s say it’s a 50% probability. Each of the above things must happen for Bitcoin to succeed on a grand scale. Even though we assigned optimistically high odds to each of them occurring, we end up with a mere 3% probability of success (50% x 10% x 50% = 2.5%).* If Bitcoin were to reach the value of the US M2 money supply, that would imply a price of $652,000. Yet, given the mere 2.5% probability of getting there, it suggests a wager above ~$16,000 makes no sense (2.5% of $652,000). Buying Bitcoin at today’s price of ~$16,000 is thus a speculation with uninspiring odds – even assuming what we believe are optimistic probabilities. Keep in mind too that we’ve benchmarked Bitcoin’s ultimate success to M2. If we instead consider gold as a more sober benchmark, these odds suggest substantial downside from today’s Bitcoin price.** Bitcoin may ultimately prove to be successful as an alternative currency. But that doesn’t make it a good investment. In short, Bitcoin has no margin of safety. What is its intrinsic value? What will its price be if the government outlaws it? Your guess is as good as ours. *Another demonstration of the risk of not understanding the need to multiply probabilities. Most folks have forgotten the lessons of their college stats class. Even if the odds are high for each progressive branch (event) in your probability tree, the odds can be very low of arriving at any final branch (event) on the tree. **Gold held by individuals and central banks, not including gold in the form of jewelry. Disclaimer: While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in the document. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any of these securities. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.

Amen of the Week: "If it don't make dollars it don't make sense." - Chris Brown and Tyga - Ayo End the repression now! The Fed’s zero interest policy is literally stealing from grandmothers. How is this not considered theft of the highest order? How is the term “financial repression” not repeated daily on the front page of the New York Times? This would surely catch readers’ attention: "Fed Staffers Caught Stealing $1 Trillion." By my napkin calculus, that’s the approximate magnitude of the offense. That’s like stealing a couple of Apples -- and I’m not talking about the fruit (Apple's market capitalization is ~$600 billion). No one is affected more than retirees who depend on interest for income. We can attempt to quantify it with the following hypothetical. Assume the natural rate of interest in an open, free economy was approximately 5% (as has been the case over centuries). Then assume that the Fed artificially pushes down interest rates to about 1% (a blend of long and short term treasury maturities). This means a retiree with life savings of $1,000,000 could draw only $10,000 in income from a high quality fixed income portfolio rather than the $50,000 income she’d otherwise draw. What happened to the $40,000 difference? It’s a “transfer” to subsidize borrowers, especially Washington, which has doubled its debt load since 2008. My hypothetical here is not so hypothetical. It describes the rough state of affairs over the past seven years. Each year compounds the damage. The retiree in our hypothetical would have lost $280,000 in income since 2009. So much for “temporary”. Initially, the Fed’s policies were an emergency measure to prevent banks from collapsing. That accomplished, rates were kept low to stimulate a recovery by tempting businesses and individuals to borrow more so they’ll spend more. (Lesson not learned.) Yet another objective of financial repression has been to prod us all into stocks, bonds, real estate, or any form of risky asset. Retirees lose either way: They either endure with almost no interest on their savings, or they’re tempted to shift into risky investments that may ultimately lose in principal when these asset inflations ultimately deflate. This continued repression is unjustified. It’s unfair. And it will end badly. Repressions always do. What’s an investor to do in the meantime? There's no easy way to navigate the paradox of these times. Rule #1 is to resist the temptation to take more risk. Don’t take the Fed's bait. The valuation of nearly everything – stocks, bonds, Brooklyn condos – are at or near all-time highs. If the risk/reward of most securities is upside down today, what else is there to do? Cash is one option. It is an under-owned, unloved asset class, and though I don’t know how to price it, the optionality value of cash is worth quite a bit. By that, I mean that when this historic asset inflation inevitably deflates, cash will then prove to be of enormous value. You’ll be the bargain hunter amidst a chaos of sellers. However, cash isn’t the only thing to be doing today. There are compelling investments out there. Just be selective. Avoid own-a-bit-of-everything portfolios. Even if most stocks are now overvalued, there will always be a handful of great companies run by great managers trading at reasonable prices. Owning high quality assets, be they shares of great businesses or plots of income-producing dirt, will be good for your mental health and long-term wealth. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Disclaimer: While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in the document. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any of these securities. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein. This information is intended only for the recipient of this email. Under no circumstances should this report be shared with or forwarded to anyone else without the express permission of Fielder.

Markets have declined broadly in the last several weeks. The reason is inflation. In this video, we describe in just 7 minutes with 7 pictures what we believe matters most: For several years, Fielder has warned in our notes that inflation and volatility were the likely outcome of Washington’s fiscal and monetary policies (under three different administrations, it’s worth noting). Today we appear vindicated in our concerns. Many blame inflation on COVID and Ukraine. Granted, these events are the sparks that ignited the fire. They are not, however, the fuel (i.e.: the secular forces underlying the structural causes – which we explain visually in our video). Fortunately, there are signs that inflation pressures may be easing – at least in the near-term. We remain concerned, however, by the longer-term threats of inflation based upon the path Washington appears committed to remain traveling down (fiscally and monetarily). We believe these words from Milton Friedman back in 1980 are equally relevant today: “Inflation is just like alcoholism. In both cases, when you start drinking or when you start printing too much money, the good effects come first, the bad effects only come later. That is why, in both cases, there is a strong temptation to overdo it—to drink too much or to print too much money. When it comes to the cure, it is the other way about. When you stop drinking, or when you stop printing money, the bad effects come first and the good effects only come later. That is why it is so hard to persist with the cure.” Milton Friedman, “Why Inflation Is Like Alcoholism” Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Steve Korn, CFA IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This note is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to invest in any particular security or strategy, since anything mentioned herein may be completely unsuitable for some investors. Speak with your financial adviser before investing. While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in this email or any attachments. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Fielder’s employees are not attorneys or accountants and do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Financial planning and investment strategies have the potential for loss. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Investing involves risk, including the potential of complete loss of principal amount invested. Fielder offers no guarantees or promises of success. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.

I had the honor to speak at Georgetown recently to a class of finance students. You can watch the highlights in this video . . . A key point of my presentation is that stock price returns are basically a crap shoot. I warn students against the myth that stocks go up 8-10% per year. The odds of that happening are actually quite low in any given year. No one should base their financial plan on that assumption (hope, actually). There are ways, however, that students can tilt the odds of success in their favor by focusing on things that actually matter. This video might be helpful to share with children or grandchildren - or anyone - interested in learning more about investing. The Fielder team is thankful for all the smart and thoughtful people in our lives. Thank you for being one of those! Happy Thanksgiving! Frank Byrd, CFA IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This note is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to invest in any particular security or strategy, since anything mentioned herein may be completely unsuitable for some investors. Speak with your financial adviser before investing. While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in this email or any attachments. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Fielder’s employees are not attorneys or accountants and do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Financial planning and investment strategies have the potential for loss. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Investing involves risk, including the potential of complete loss of principal amount invested. Fielder offers no guarantees or promises of success. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.

"The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures." - Warren Buffett Fortune Magazine, 1977* Fool's Gold? Gold has confounded investors this year. Though widely considered an inflation hedge, gold is down ~7% since January when inflation began heating up. How can this be? Does it mean that gold isn’t really an inflation hedge? The answer is that it depends. Look Who’s Buying Individual investors have given up on gold as a hedge this year. During the third quarter, ETF investors sold a significant amount of their gold holdings. Gold investment was down 47% year-over-year (in tonnes excluding OTC). But guess who was buying? Central banks bought a record amount of gold during the third quarter, far ahead of purchases during prior years’ third quarters. This buying was led by central banks in emerging markets. Goldman Sachs in a recent note** argues this is the beginning of an inflection point of a long-term trend. Following the Cold War's end in the 1990's, geopolitical tensions moderated and markets gained greater confidence in central bankers’ ability to maintain inflation stability. Over the following decades, central banks proceeded to sell gold and buy dollars for their reserve assets, thus denting gold demand. This year’s surge in central banks' gold buying may signal a reversal of this post-Cold War monetary order, according to Goldman. Is Gold a Hedge? Traditionally gold has been viewed as an inflation hedge. An important nuance, however, is that gold is a vote of confidence in a central bank's ability to maintain the value of its paper money. During high inflations when this confidence is low (as during Burns tenure running the Fed in the 1970's), gold is viewed as a hedge. During inflations where confidence in central bankers is high (as during Volcker’s tenure in the 1980's), gold is not a good inflation hedge. Think of gold today as a vote of confidence in Fed Chairman Powell’s ability to get this inflation under control. Investors are taking his tough talk seriously, hence the stagnation in gold's price. What is ultimately more relevant for us is how dedicated the Fed is to maintaining the dollar's purchasing power in the decade ahead. Actions speak louder than words. And long-term actions speak louder than short-term actions. The Fed has doubled the money supply in the past ten years, yet let it decline ~1% thus far this year. (So that's one hundred steps forward, one step back.) Meanwhile, other central banks are buying gold. Fun Fact There’s a reason gold is called a precious metal. It is rare. All the gold ever mined from the earth would not fill the Washington Monument. Ironically, central bankers are the opposite of precious. It would take the equivalent of four Willis Towers to house the 73,800 employees working in central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan.*** Though we jest with this silly comparison, it does create a powerful image of how precious this metal really is. We continue to believe that gold will serve as a better store of value than paper money over time. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Steve Korn, CFA *"How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor" by Warren Buffett. Fortune, May 1977. **Goldman Sachs Commodities Research, Mikhail Sprogis and Sabine Schels, “Gold: The Fed vs EM Central Banks”, Nov 7, 2022. ***Sources: “Are there too many central bankers?”, The Economist, Feb 24, 2020; and Fielder Capital's calculations. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This note is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to invest in any particular security or strategy, since anything mentioned herein may be completely unsuitable for some investors. Speak with your financial adviser before investing. While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in this email or any attachments. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Fielder’s employees are not attorneys or accountants and do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Financial planning and investment strategies have the potential for loss. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Investing involves risk, including the potential of complete loss of principal amount invested. Fielder offers no guarantees or promises of success. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.

"The national budget must be balanced. The public debt must be reduced." - Cicero, 55 BC People Problem Looming behind all the theatrics over Taiwan is a quiet, but potentially more threatening issue: China has a shrinking population. Should we even care? Is China’s problem our problem too? Consider the following two pictures of the world’s second largest economy. First, here is China’s working age population . . . Source: Oxford Economics (historic data and forecasts), FactSet After years of rapid growth, China’s working age population has been declining since 2015. Demographers expect it to decline significantly in the coming decades. Oxford Economics projects it to drop over 20% by 2050. Meanwhile China’s debt levels are rising sharply . . . Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS), FactSet For answers, we turned to one of the top authorities on China’s financial system, Carl Walter, the noted author of Red Capitalism. Carl’s new book, Red Dream, will shortly hit the shelves. It highlights the risk that China’s extreme leverage, combined with its shrinking population, poses for its banking system – and for its economic and political stability. The following video includes the highlights of what we learned from Carl. Carl is not your typical CNN “talking head”. He’s legit. Carl is one of the pioneers of China’s modern banks, having worked for more than three decades in China in senior roles, including as the CEO of JP Morgan’s China banking subsidiary. Carl led some of the first and most significant IPO’s of China’s state enterprises and served as a director for one of its largest banks. China’s major banks matter. It’s top four state-owned banks are global systemically important banks. They rank among the seven largest companies by assets globally – all larger than JP Morgan. Today there’s a lot of leverage built up in China’s financial system. Its bank balance sheets have ballooned to 3-times its GDP. Its ratio of government debt/ GDP is much higher than the US’s and is trending towards Japan’s level. Today there are 65 million incomplete and empty apartments, which were built with the savings of the Chinese people. Real estate prices are beginning to decline, leading some people to start tearing up mortgages for their apartments still under construction. Of course, China’s central bank can print money. But it cannot print people. If China’s population continues to decline, Carl worries that China’s bank deposits could begin to decline. In his new book, Carl explores whether Beijing has the financial wherewithal to fund the social contract the Party has with the people. The answer comes down to deposit growth, which has funded China’s historic growth and will be necessary to fund its future growth. Is Demographics Destiny? Does China have the financial wherewithal to continue its state-driven growth? Or is a day of reckoning near? Carl addresses that question in our video interview. Demographics does not have to be destiny. Carl believes that Beijing does have options. He fears, however, that current leadership will not pursue those options. Instead, he sees the Party continuing its turn toward greater centralization, rejecting the economic liberalization that (Carl and we believe) lifted a billion people out of poverty and restored China to its historic position as one of the world’s leading economies. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Steve Korn, CFA IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This note is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to invest in any particular security or strategy, since anything mentioned herein may be completely unsuitable for some investors. Speak with your financial adviser before investing. While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in this email or any attachments. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Fielder’s employees are not attorneys or accountants and do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Financial planning and investment strategies have the potential for loss. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Investing involves risk, including the potential of complete loss of principal amount invested. Fielder offers no guarantees or promises of success. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.

“Oil reserves have defined geopolitics for the last five decades. Where the fabs [factories] are for a digital future is more important. Let’s build them where we want them and define the world that we want to be part of in the U.S. and Europe.” Pat Gelsinger, CEO, Intel CNBC Interview (3/23/22) Just in Case The Ukraine crisis shifts the way our world works. The way that we navigate it – as leaders and investors – needs to shift accordingly. As we mourn the devastating loss inflicted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we struggle to make sense of what Putin’s motivations truly are. Regardless, we have increasing conviction in the consequences. The horrific images of mass dislocation and death tell us everything about the immediate impact on the people of Ukraine – and Russia. There will be longer-term consequences for millions more around the world – less lethal and tragic, though significant nonetheless. Consequence: Deglobalization Ukraine has amplified countries’ fears of being dependent on other countries for key resources such as food and energy. The past century of globalization made our supply chains more efficient, but as COVID shortages revealed, it also made them more fragile. The Ukraine crisis makes this even more painfully obvious. US automakers need chips from Taiwan, while Taiwan needs Xeon from Ukraine to make the chips, and so on. Following COVID, the mantra shifted from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case”. The Ukraine crisis intensifies this sense of urgency. Witness the dramatic examples already underway: Germany is accelerating two liquified natural gas (LNG) import terminals to begin weaning itself off Russian hydrocarbons. Intel is spending over $20 billion building two leading edge semiconductor plants in Ohio. And it's not just U.S. chip manufacturers bringing production back to our shores. Taiwan Semiconductor is building a $12 billion plant in Arizona, and Samsung plans to construct a $17 billion plant in Texas. Ford plans to invest $11 billion building a car plant and three battery plants in Tennessee and Kentucky. "Bringing the battery supply chain to the U.S. insulates Ford from being held hostage by battery shortages the way the industry has been kneecapped by the global semiconductor chip shortage," reports the Detroit Free Press (Sept. 28, 2021). Consequence: Dollar Fragility The U.S.’s decision to freeze Russia’s currency reserves was unprecedented. Many commentators have fretted this has “weaponized” the dollar. While this may be hyperbolic, we believe there are negative consequences – at least marginally. Near-term, amid the Ukraine turmoil, the US dollar is benefiting from its perceived safe haven status. Longer-term, we believe the central banks of foreign countries will diversify away from the dollar to avoid the risk of finding themselves in Russia’s shoes. China and Russia both were already doing this over the past several years. The following chart shows China’s significant reduction over the past decade in foreign currency as a percent of its central bank’s reserves from over 80% in 2015 to under 55% last month (most of which has been in U.S. dollars). Source: Factset, PBOC, Yardini Research Even friendly countries like India may reduce their U.S. dollar reserves as a precaution against future conflicts with the U.S., or rather in anticipation of dollar weakness, as “troublemakers” like China, Iran, or Venezuela shed their own dollar reserves. Consequence: Inflation A more robust supply chain is not the cheapest one. Do we really want to be reliant on China for N95 masks, or should we make some here? Even if it costs more, wouldn’t it be worth it? Every manager of every production line is surely asking similar questions. This can lead to wage inflation, as employees demand raises that keep pace with their own rising cost of living. This will happen quicker than the longer-term disinflationary forces of robotics and automation. The upshot is that an anti-fragile world is more reliable, which may be more cost effective longer-term, if not downright cheaper. But we’re years away from that potentially positive outcome. Consequence: Volatility All of the above will not be smooth. We should all brace for more volatility – geopolitically and in markets. Investment Implications Gold and Bitcoin: Some central banks have been shifting a greater share of their reserves to gold. Over the past 20 years, China and Russia's central banks have increased their gold holdings by approximately 400%. We expect other central banks to allocate more to gold as well. Some believe that central banks could also increase their holdings of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. While we agree that it could be positive for Bitcoin at the margin, crypto remains too small relative to gold in order to make much of a dent in central bank balance sheets. Gold’s market size is ~13x that of Bitcoin’s. Global central banks would thus have to acquire all of Bitcoin’s market value to make a dent, and even then, it would total less than 40% of their existing gold holdings. It’s far easier and faster to grow their gold holdings. Still, Bitcoin could benefit as central banks of smaller countries build meaningful positions (as El Salvador has recently done). Commodities and natural resources: The combination of onshoring, re-militarization, and fortifying strategic reserves increases the demand for oil, grains, metals, and minerals. For example, President Biden recently floated the Defense Powers Act to make sure we have enough battery metals. Companies with pricing power: We continue to believe that the best defense is a strong offense. For investors that means owning companies that have pricing power through an inflationary period. That includes (but is not limited to) companies that are leaders in innovation. We are on the cusp of profound innovation in technology, biotech, clean energy, and new materials, to name a few examples. We want to own a piece of this innovation as shareholders. Energy: Nuclear power will play a bigger role as well. We expect continued investment and innovation in renewables and conservation, along with policymakers seeking to source fossil fuels domestically or from “friendly” foreign sources. As we fortify ourselves and portfolios for a rough period ahead, we believe it is crucial to remain open-eyed, open-minded, and adaptable. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Steve Korn, CFA IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This note is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to invest in any particular security or strategy, since anything mentioned herein may be completely unsuitable for some investors. Speak with your financial adviser before investing. While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in this email or any attachments. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Fielder’s employees are not attorneys or accountants and do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Financial planning and investment strategies have the potential for loss. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Investing involves risk, including the potential of complete loss of principal amount invested. Fielder offers no guarantees or promises of success. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.

"Blockchain Is Awful" It’s not easy to weed through all the crypto-fluff, but there are some sober-minded experts we respect in this field. One is Alex Thorn, the Head of Firmwide Research for Galaxy Digital. Alex has nuanced perspective. He flat out says, “Blockchain is awful” – at least for many of the applications for which it is hyped. He’s a skeptic that it gains traction in many of the hoped-for functions. There are, however, applications and use cases where blockchain could provide game-changing improvements. Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital Alex has agreed to host a live call with clients (and friends) of Fielder Capital. You can sign up at the end of this note. Alex will explain: Why blockchain is “awful” for certain applications, but ideal for others. Real world examples where crypto could make things 10x better (faster, cheaper, easier, safer). What could go wrong? What could derail blockchain's adoption? Where Are the Killer Apps? The great promise of blockchain has been widely heralded. People are enthusiastic about the great things that decentralized blockchain should be able to do theoretically. This is certainly no secret. Last month I had two different Uber drivers proselytize the virtues of blockchain and how it will improve everything from banking to logistics to healthcare. Blockchain isn’t a baby anymore. It’s a big kid. Bitcoin is 14 years old; Ethereum is 7 years old. It’s about time, we believe, to ask the obvious question: Where are all the real-world applications? Yes, Bitcoin has gained mass adoption as a store of value (“digital gold”). NFT’s are also gaining mass adoption (Sotheby's sold more than $100 million in NFT's last year). Beyond these obvious examples, though, we're having trouble identifying use cases that are achieving widespread, mainstream adoption. Hype / Substance This has us worried that the ratio of hype to substance for blockchain is too high. During the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, that ratio was definitely too high. Nevertheless, we saw killer apps almost immediately in retail (Amazon, eBay) and communications (email, chat rooms, online news), among others. We remain believers more than skeptics. From the due diligence that Fielder’s CIO Steve Korn has led, we have gained conviction that many of the world’s very brightest minds are dedicated to developing blockchain and crypto applications. We’re just anxious to see things progress from the theoretical to the empirical. Speaking of bright minds, we’re thrilled to host a fireside chat and live Q&A with Alex Thorn… Call Details with Alex Speaker: Alex Thorn Date: Wednesday, March 2nd Time: 4:30pm Eastern Time To Register: Email info@fieldercapital.com We hope you can join and learn with us. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA, CFP® IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This note is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to invest in any particular security or strategy, since anything mentioned herein may be completely unsuitable for some investors. Speak with your financial adviser before investing. While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in this email or any attachments. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Fielder’s employees are not attorneys or accountants and do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Financial planning and investment strategies have the potential for loss. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Investing involves risk, including the potential of complete loss of principal amount invested. Fielder offers no guarantees or promises of success. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.

Everyone’s favorite topic lately is how much housing prices are up ... or how much the stock market is up. But guess what's gone up more than either the past 20 years? The money supply. People don’t talk about money supply as much. They should, though. Just since COVID, the Federal Reserve has grown the money supply by 34%. Should it surprise us to see that housing prices and the S&P 500 are up roughly the same amount (34% and 36% respectively)?* We believe there will be consequences. Your personal balance sheet should be positioned for them. Fun fact: Since 1961, the money supply is up roughly the same as the S&P 500.* Money Supply vs. S&P 500* This is hard to believe at first glance. How can this be? Consider that the money supply is up 63-fold in just the past six decades. This means that there is 63-times the amount of money chasing goods and services ... and assets. It thus shouldn’t surprise us to see stocks worth over 63-times more over this period.3 You can see a similar relationship between housing prices and money supply. The following chart shows that housing prices have appreciated roughly in line with money supply, though they have yet to make up for lost ground post the 2008 crisis.4 Money Supply vs. Home Prices* The money supply has grown, not by accident, but by design. Thank our Federal Reserve for that. There have been consequences – some intended, some unintended. Inflating asset prices, such as homes and stock markets, are definitely intended. This is often portrayed as a bad thing, though historically that has not always been the case. It’s kind of like intentionally buying donuts. They sure taste good. While donuts may not be healthy, buying them is not necessarily a bad thing if done in moderation. Likewise, money supply growth in moderation over time won’t kill us. And like donuts, it can even help getting through those occasional bad days a bit easier. The problem is unintended consequences. Addiction, for one. Just last week the Federal Reserve promised to cut back on the donuts. Hopefully, we’ll be positively surprised. However, every time the Fed has tried to significantly cut back since 2008, they have reversed course in response to markets selling off. We are thus skeptical of the Fed’s willpower. If it cannot ultimately break its addiction, it could lead to more serious consequences. Consumer price inflation is a serious unintended consequence of money supply growth. So far we have only benefited from the intended consequence of ASSET inflation. At some point, homes and other high-need assets become too expensive for most people. It should concern us all that wages have not kept pace with money supply growth since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Money Supply vs. Employees’ Wages* We are thus watching money supply growth carefully and looking for signs of unintended consequences. For example, will wage inflation moderate or accelerate and ultimately lead to higher consumer prices? Doomsayers like your grumpy uncle are premature in predicting the End Times are here. Magnitude matters. There is a credible possibility that the economy and markets boom despite higher consumer price inflation. Historically, modest inflation of up to ~4% has often coincided with a healthy economy and stock market returns. Yet, when modest inflations turn into high inflations greater than 4% (as happened in the 1970s), that has been bad for markets historically.** Knowing the above, how should we be positioned? Fielder continues to guide our clients' portfolios to have at least some exposure to assets that would benefit from higher inflation – both the intended and unintended varieties. Importantly, this cannot be limited to owning stocks. There have been long stretches where stocks have underperformed Treasury Bills (which themselves suffered in real value versus inflation):*** 2000-2012 (13 years) 1966-1982 (17 Years) 1929-1943 (15 Years) To be truly insulated requires balance across multiple types of assets, such as certain precious metals and commodities, TIPS, and perhaps even crypto assets. Balance is everything. Our mandate is to help clients balance their assets in a way that contemplates different potential future paths. We think about potential downside, while seeking to maximize exposure to the serendipity of human innovation and progress. Because inflation can be such a threat, we have dedicated a great deal of time professionally to studying past inflations that have afflicted different nations over centuries. The one lesson from history that scares us the most about inflations is that they’ve typically been a surprise – even to the pros like economists. It pays to remain humble, watchful, and prepared. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Steve Korn, CFA Notes: *Money supply is defined as M2, which is the total volume of money held by the public (essentially cash, coins, travelers checks, and most bank deposits and money market accounts). The period "since COVID" is from February 1, 2020 to July 31, 2021. Granted, the starting and ending time periods matter. Over many shorter time periods, the S&P 500 has been up much more than the money supply. The above is presented in good faith for educational purposes. We are merely trying to convey that theoretically and empirically a rising money supply over very long periods has consequences for asset prices. The simple comparison between money supply and price levels assumes all else is held constant. Other important factors, such as output and velocity, have not held constant. The same goes for stock valuation multiples. Date range of the first chart is from 07/31/1961 to 07/31/2021. Second chart is from 07/31/1968 to 07/31/2021. Last chart is from 07/31/1961 to 07/31/2021. All data is per FactSet. **Inflation up to 4% has historically been favorable for equities according to research by Russell Napier. (Macro Voices interview, January 28, 2021) ***Larry Swedroe, “Is It Really Stocks for the Long Run?”, May 11, 2020. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This note is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to invest in any particular security or strategy, since anything mentioned herein may be completely unsuitable for some investors. Speak with your financial adviser before investing. While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in this email or any attachments. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Fielder’s employees are not attorneys or accountants and do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Financial planning and investment strategies have the potential for loss. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Investing involves risk, including the potential of complete loss of principal amount invested. Fielder offers no guarantees or promises of success. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.

“If you want to do truly extraordinary things in your life, you need to have a very high win rate. Genghis Khan only fought unfair fights… For most of the fights that he picked, his people weren't even within eyesight of the people they were conquering. Their bows literally had 30 to 50 yards more length to them. They didn't fight hand-to-hand… His number one general died on a farm at the age of seventy-three after conquering Western Europe… He didn't lose a single battle… The only way you do that with capital is you exclusively focus on unfair fights.” - Yen Liow, Aravt Global Fielder recently hosted a discussion with Yen Liow, founder and portfolio manager of Aravt Global, a New York based hedge fund. (The name Aravt refers to Genghis Khan’s army units.) Yen shared his strategy of investing in what he calls “compounders” or “horses”, which are great businesses led by great people that have long runways of growth ahead of them. One thing that Yen said resonated in particular . . . “I think this is by far the most important financial concept -- frankly, life concept -- that underpins the entire strategy. Which is we're really all here to compound our wealth, compound our knowledge, compound our friendships, compound our life experience. Compounding is the core essence of investing. It's by far the most powerful law. And if you get on the right side of it, you'll live a very, very good life. And if you live on the wrong side of it, it's not so pretty.” You can watch our full discussion here: Highlights from the Call: Game selection is critical. Choose your game wisely. You want a game with high prediction, high performance outcomes. For him, it’s investing in compounders, companies that can compound capital at exceptionally high rates over long periods of time (“horses”). Horses are rare. Only 3% of stocks have been able to compound earnings at 20% annually for a decade or longer. Monopolies and oligopolies improve your odds. “You can sleep well at night.” He shares how he screens for them. Lifecycle stage matters. There are multiple stages to a company's lifecycle. Only the replication stage is a high prediction environment. Yen explains what this stage is and why it matters. Some horses become mules. “There are plenty of great businesses that are poorly run that don't scale.” Price follows earnings. Earnings and dividends drive the vast majority of long-term returns. Over time, earnings power and price of the stock converge. (Which lowers the risk/benefit of buying a stock at a high/low valuation.) Growth is not always good. It’s the business model and competitive barriers that matter. Many growth stocks he would not touch. Think the dot com bust. People matter. “We want to align with very strong jockeys that know what they're doing -- that are hungry, capable, aligned and ethical.” “You don't need to do crazy things. You need to be able to do consistent things for long periods of time. And that's what creates tremendous wealth.” To learn more, watch the full discussion by clicking above. Game selection is more critical than ever. The Federal Reserve and Washington are changing the rules to the game that investors have been used to playing. Reach out if you’d like our help in rethinking your own game plan. Yours in the Field, Frank Byrd, CFA Steve Korn, CFA DISCLAIMER RE ARAVT GLOBAL: The above information was prepared in good faith by Fielder for general education purposes. Nothing herein constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any fund or account managed by Aravt Global. Any such offer or solicitation may be made only by means of the delivery of a confidential offering memorandum or other offering materials (the “Offering Documents”), which you can request directly from Aravt Global at (212) 599-8218. DISCLAIMER: While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in the document. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any of these securities. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.